Tropical Weekend: Ana, Bill…and Claudette??
Well, it’s been a big day in the Atlantic, and it doesn’t look like it will end any time soon.
You may have read my history of Tropical Depression Two (now Tropical Storm Ana) yesterday morning, and you may have further seen my tweet about the formation of Tropical Storm Bill (only 6 hours after being declared a Tropical Depression) on Saturday evening.
Coming on the heels of a completely quiet June, July and first half of August, this is all pretty intense. But it’s not over yet. Not only are both Ana and Bill heading toward land (Ana has prompted a Tropical Storm Watch for parts of the Leeward Islands and Bill is currently forecast to pass near the same area as a hurricane next week), but now there’s a new system brewing much closer to home: the Gulf of Mexico, just off the coast of Tampa, FL.
Dubbed Invest 91L*, here’s the latest from the Hurricane Center on this new system:
SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO…CENTERED ABOUT 80 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TAMPA…IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND MAY BE DEVELOPING A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE…GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT…OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE SOMETIME TODAY.
[*systems that aren't quite organized enough to be called Tropical Depressions but that bare watching are called invests and numbered from 90-99 (when they hit 99 they just go back to 90).]
(live IR satellite image of invest 91L)
Invest 91L is already looking like it’s spinning on radar imagery out of Tampa (and on infrared satellite, for that matter) and the radar presentation is overall fairly impressive (see image below). As the NHC noted above, the one thing holding this system back from being declared T.D. 4 (or even T.S. Claudette?) is the surface circulation. Not closed, not a storm. Closed, and the NHC declares it. It’s that simple.
(Click to visit UCAR for latest images.)
If the system does get a closed circulation (which I’m 90% sure it will by 5am EDT, when the NHC issues advisories and would likely start advisories on this system if deemed necessary) it doesn’t have a lot of time to mature before it makes landfall. The NHC has it moving to the NNW at 15mph, and most models bring it inland near the Florida/Alabama state line within the day.
Given the presentation of the system on radar and satellite my money is on T.S. Claudette by the end of Sunday, but we’ll see.
Gotta say, this weekend isn’t boring in the Atlantic!
Stay tuned and stay safe.
Cheers,
-j
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